![]() This means that conflict analysis and prevention efforts can miss the red flags and warnings that could help the UN to act before the outbreak of armed conflict. Yet despite their critical role in sparking, facilitating, and sustaining armed conflict, arms-related risks and impacts appear to be the least well understood elements in existing UN conflict analysis tools. The foundation for preventing or managing conflict begins with an analysis of the current context, often taking the form of a conflict analysis to identify the direct and indirect causes of instability. Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan highlighted that measures to prevent the misuse and illicit transfer of conventional arms and ammunition, and to address the root causes of their demand, would greatly contribute to armed conflict prevention. Without arms and ammunition there can be no armed conflict.
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